2021 Q4 Update
Notes from q4 presentation and a forecast
I have not believed the rumours that Turkey is creating the majority of profits in Betsson, and during the quarterly call with the management in Betsson I asked if any market creates more than 20 % of the EBIT, and the answer was no. This is really important since it implies that they are truly diversified. Hopefully this relax the attitude towards Turkey as a market going forward. Even tough the collapse of the Turkish currency, Betsson are rather stable in the region and I do not see this as a major risk factor short term.
Highlights
Launched in Argentina
More focus on Greece
Stronger underlying development in the sport book than the revenue imply, maybe weak margins? See picture below.
Strong development in CEECA, partly driven by the the new markets Croatia and Greece. Basically all market reported ATH revenues.
Active customer increased by 17%, taking into consideration the loss of Dutch customers "make you understand the rest of the businesses perform very solidly". Sport book GGR up 16 % year on year.
Nordic weakness mostly related to weak sport book margin.
37 % procent coming from markets were Betsson pay betting duties, compared to 34 % the previous year.
Regulatory update
Norway, DNS blocking which not getting stopped by EU
Finland impose marketing restrictions and payment blockings from 2023.
Georgia
Ban on marketing
Increased taxes
Raised legal age of gambling
Will take effect in March 2022
Lithuania
Increased taxes. From 13 % to 20 % of GGR and betting tax from 18 to 20 %, will take effect in 2022.
Guess for 2022(MSEK)
Moving into Argentina and planning to launch and Canada
CEECA are now the largest market LTM.
The nordics having headwinds both in Norway and Finland.
Assumptions for 2022
Growth: CEECA: 30 %, Other 50 %, Nordic 0%, q4*4
Margin as q4, EBIT 13 %
Revenue = 2107+200*4+2151*1,3+1074*1,5= 7300
EBIT 950-1095
EV 7683
EV/EBIT 7-8